After seven years.
Global temperature and missing heat whereabouts update
Posted: October 4, 2014 by Rog Tallbloke in climate, Idiots, Measurement, methodology, Politics, radiative theory, Uncertainty
The plot below needs little explanation. The globally average surface temperature hasn’t warmed in over 18 years according to the RSS satellite dataset.
Now, Some say the surface hasn’t warmed because the ‘missing heat’ has gone into the oceans instead of warming the surface.However, if we look at ARGO; the best data we have for ocean heat content (OHC) (before it got reworked in 2010 by dropping buoys showing cooling from the dataset) – we see that Ocean Heat Content actually fell from 2003 to 2008:
Where else could the heat have ‘hidden’? Well, the warmists claim it went deeper than the bulk of the ARGO system measures – below 700m, where uncertainty rises dramatically. However, they offer no plausible explanation of how energy is transferred through a 700m deep COOLING layer, in defiance of the second law of thermodynamics.
To try to resolve this conundrum, Talkshop contributor Peter Berenyi correlated ARGO data with CERES FLASHflux outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. He found that the best fit shows that the Earth’s energy balance went negative around 2005 – so unless the second law has been on holiday for the last 9 years, more energy has been leaving the planet than arriving – in defiance of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect theory, which says that extra CO2 in the atmosphere causes more energy to be ‘trapped’ in Earth’s climate system.
The missing heat has left the building
The usual way of dealing with a situation where observations defy the theory is to revisit the theory. In climate science though, we get statements from people like Kevin Trenberth saying “the data are surely wrong”, and the removal of the ‘bad’ data from the dataset by Sid Levitus in order to make the data fit the theory. I think they learned this trick from Michael Mann.
Due diligence at the Talkshop, and at a couple of other blogs such as Digging in the clay has led to discoveries concerning the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect theory which show that the misapplication of radiative theory to the atmosphere is fundamentally flawed. How long it will take to get this recognised and corrected by mainstream climate scientists is anyone’s guess. They are under a lot of political, financial and reputational pressure to avoid the inevitable – the self correction of science which occurs when the scientific method is rigorously adhered to and science is allowed to progress.
In the meantime, lukewarmer teams such as ‘Watts Up With That’ who believe the Enhanced GHE theory is correct but overestimated have pushed away those sceptical of the ‘consensus’ with a lot of nastiness and vitriol, and smeared them as purveyors of ‘far out’ theory. This makes the job of clearing up the errors in the misapplication of standard radiative theory to Earth’s climate system which underpins the Enhanced GHE theory more difficult, as the consensus team is now employing these lukewarmers as their useful idiots in maintaining its position.
Nevertheless, work continues on improving the clarity of our exposition of the errors, and the better alternative theory we are developing, which involves solar variation and its causes. Rick Salvador’s solar system harmonic resonance model is looking pretty good for hindcasting the last 4000 years of solar variability as determined by Steinhilber et al’s TSI reconstruction derived from the 10Be proxy .
Watch this space for further developments.